Quiet here on the blog lately but NFL season gets my butt back in gear. Doing NFL picks started on the radio show in 2008 and then I moved it over to the blog. The name came from a listener who asked if I’d ever thought of using “Carnell Knowledge” as the name for a segment. Works for this so I’ve used it the past few seasons.
On Twitter, I picked Denver over Baltimore on Thursday. I’ll use Twitter to make the Thursday picks since that game is so much earlier than the majority of the week. For those new, I just pick winners. No point spreads. I list the games, then my pick followed by any comments I might have.
OAKLAND AT INDIANAPOLIS
Indy made the playoffs last year at 11-5. However they were outscored by opponents by 30 points. Huh? No wonder many people like me picked them to lose in that playoff game. They were beat by the eventual Super Bowl champions 24-9. Meanwhile the Raiders are the Raiders.
MINNESOTA AT DETROIT
Vikings made the playoffs thanks to Peterson but Ponder is still their QB. Lions I think is an 8-8 team who will surprise Minnesota in Week 1.
MIAMI AT CLEVELAND
2 teams who should be better than last year, just going with the Browns on a whim.
CINCINNATI AT CHICAGO
Quietly the Bengals have made the playoffs 2 years in a row. Even I forgot about that until the pre-season. Chicago has Jay Cutler and I’m never sold on him.
SEATTLE AT CAROLINA
Super Bowl contender against one of the most overrated QB in the league, easy pick for me.
KANSAS CITY AT JACKSONVILLE
Andy Reid now coaching KC with Alex Smith. A QB who has won a Super Bowl, well he lost his job to the guy who got them to the big game but a ring is a ring. Jaguars are airing the NFL Red Zone channel on their jumbotron during home games. All you need to know about that franchise.
TAMPA BAY AT NY JETS
Neither team I have much faith in this season. A pick em.
ATLANTA AT NEW ORLEANS
Sean Peyton back as head coach after his suspension, New Orleans had one of the worst defenses ever last season. So they can’t be that bad again.
TENNESSEE AT PITTSBURGH
Who do the Titans have at quarterback? Jake Locker or Ryan Fitzpatrick. Dog’s breakfast there.
NEW ENGLAND AT BUFFALO
Pats usually pound the Bills so that’s enough time on this one.
GREEN BAY AT SAN FRANCISCO
49ers spanked the Packers in the playoffs last season and this game is San Francisco so I’ll go with them.
ARIZONA AT ST. LOUIS
Carson Palmer now in Arizona. Cardinals were in such bad shape that Palmer is a big upgrade. In one of the strangest stats of 2012, what team in the NFC West had the best division record? It wasn’t Seattle or San Francisco, it was the Rams who were 4-1-1. Go figure.
NY GIANTS AT DALLAS
Early season big games, Dallas likes to show up. End of the season is a different matter altogether as we’ve seen many times.
PHILADELPHIA AT WASHINGTON
My team is the Redskins but I don’t know what to expect in Week 1 with RGIII. And the Eagles a re a mystery too since new coach Chip Kelly has kept things under wrap. Flip a coin and I went with Philly.
HOUSTON AT SAN DIEGO
Chargers finally fired Norv Turner and GM A.J. Smith. Too little, too late for the Chargers. And it is now 10 years ago when they traded Eli Manning to the Giants and got Phillip Rivers. Eli wasn’t going to play for them so can’t blame them too much for that. However San Diego later on letting Drew Brees leave and going with Rivers? Not the best decision.
Houston is a team I never believe in. Last year was that comical Monday Night game against the Patriots. Where they showed up all wearing custom made Letterman jackets like a high school team, and proceeded to get their ass kicked 42-14. Playoff time they get the Patriots again and lose 41-28.
They did make the playoffs however, so this week I’ll pick them over San Diego.
Divisional Weekend, which doesn’t have the same ring as ‘Wild Card’ Weekend. We’re stuck with the name though.
Baltimore at Denver
Peyton Manning’s playoff record, 9-10. Cold weather playoff games where the temperature is below 40F, 0-3. Amount of times he’s been ‘one and done’ in the post season, SEVEN. That`s a lot for one of the so-called greatest quarterbacks of all time. Heck, Eli has twice as many Super Bowl rings as him.
Denver is on an 11 game winning streak, however how many of those wins against winning teams? Two. And by the end of the year the Broncos had the 2nd easiest strength of schedule in the NFL. Colts last week came in with 11 wins, and Baltimore beat them pretty soundly.
Houston at New England
No chance I`d put money down on Houston after not showing up earlier in the season against the Pats. And barely beating the Bengals last week. Not much else to add.
Seattle at Atlanta
It`s Matt Ryan and the Atlanta Falcons. If you’ve read the blog during the season you know I’m no fan of them. Seattle playing great and this is a road game in a dome. Which negates a lot of home field. Falcons had Green Bay at home couple seasons ago, didn’t help them any.
Green Bay at San Francisco
Aaron Rodgers against the team he grew up rooting for, and who ended up drafting Alex Smith over him. Smith is on the bench right now by the way. Rodgers is a guy who holds a grudge very easily as the 60 Minutes piece on him showed. So now he gets one of his BIGGEST grudges in the playoffs. Not a recipe for good things.
Also San Fran’s defense hasn’t been that good lately. Giving up 34 points to New England, then 42 points against Seattle. Ended the season with a 27-13 win over Arizona, a team whose coach and GM were fired the following day so not exactly a good team. A shootout with Green Bay is not a good idea.
Almost typed 2012 in the title. Back to picking NFL games after a 2 week absence.
Bengals at Texans
After all these years it is time to pull out a saying. Houston, we have a problem. Had a chance for a bye and lost to the Colts last week. Had a chance to be 1st seed in the AFC and pissed that away over the course of December. Had a chance to prove critics wrong against the Patriots on national TV, lost 42-14. I can’t pick Houston against the Bengals.
Vikings at Packers
Minnesota beating Green Bay 2 weeks in a row? Their quarterback Christian Ponder did play well last Sunday. Odds of that happening a week later I’d say is slim.
Colts at Ravens
Former Baltimore Colts vs Baltimore’s current team. Head coach of Indy, Chuck Pagano vs the team he was a coach with the previous 4 seasons. Neither team I believe in. Ravens do have a lot more playoff experience so I’ll pick them.
Seahawks at Redskins
Which team on a streak do I go with? Washington, just because they are home. Seattle 2-5 on the road, I don’t count the Toronto win against the Bills as a road game. That was neutral site as anyone here in Ontario would tell you. It was a game they were trying to sell tickets to by the fact a one hit wonder was playing halftime.
And I’m not picking against Robert Griffin III and Alfred Morris. Seattle can win, however that road record is just not good enough for me to pick them.
Only one update for August seemed about right. Wasn’t much going on with the radio show, quiet end to summer. In a college town once Labour Day hits, summer is done. Queen’s students back in town and football broadcasts begin.
Couple of changes soon. Doing technical producer on the 1st two games then taking most of the season off. Might be back for that Friday night game in Toronto. But won’t be in the chair for the Saturday games. Was too much on my plate this fall.
As for the radio show on September 19th it will be back to the old 60 minute length. Still on Fridays around the same time 7-8pm. So we lose the first hour. Schedule crunch in the fall so that explains the change. Thought better to stay on same day then go to another timeslot. Program was an hour, the first year and a half, so it isn’t something that different. Can’t play 3-4 songs from a CD like I do in the 2 hour format, but that is the only major difference I can think of.
Could change again in winter or spring schedule. For now I’ll have a relaxing fall with going back to the old days. Starting out the show filling out an hour was tough when you are starting from scratch. Mentioned before that back in 2007 CFRC only had one Great Big Sea album. Have 3 now just to show how it’s increased.
After doing 2 hours for two years 60 minutes will seem easy. 🙂
Some East Coast football content today with Touchdown Atlantic in Moncton. Home game for Toronto vs Edmonton. And from all accounts this will be the Argos’ home game with the most revenue. Shows how much support there is in Atlantic Canada. I’ll write more after the fact.
7-9 last week, so I’m going backwards this season. Not as in depth as before, writing this very early on a Sunday. Maybe that will help since I left it later than usual.
San Francisco at Kansas City. CHIEFS.
Kansas City surprising this season in a good way, 49ers in the opposite direction.
Detroit at Minnesota. LIONS.
Brett Favre 0-3, could be after Sunday. He pushed his luck by one season too many.
Buffalo at New England. PATRIOTS.
Pats played one good half and one bad half last week in that lost to the Jets. Bills are the Bills.
Atlanta at New Orleans. SAINTS.
Saints scratched out a 2-0 record. Being at home I’ll give them the edge.
Tennessee at New York Giants. TITANS.
After Sunday night’s beatdown against Indy I will go with another AFC South team to beat New York.
Pittsburgh at Tampa Bay. STEELERS.
Pittsburgh defense pulling them through so far. Tampa Bay 2-0 as well. Haven’t really paid attention to those wins.
Cincinnati at Carolina. BENGALS.
Cincinnati coming off a victory against Baltimore. I think they have 8 division victories in a row. Which is just weird.
Cleveland at Baltimore. RAVENS.
Talking about AFC North, Ravens should rebound here.
Dallas at Houston. TEXANS.
If Cowboys lose to their cross state rivals it will be big for both sides.
Washington at St. Louis. REDSKINS.
Redskins scored a lot last week and still lost. As a Skins fan it’s been years since I’ve seen an offense.
Philadelphia at Jacksonville. EAGLES.
Vick in as QB which is the good move. Especially with a guy coming back from a concussion who is not a proven starter.
Indianapolis at Denver. COLTS.
Don’t recall these teams playing very often. After Peyton smacked NYG around I’m going with them.
Oakland at Arizona. RAIDERS.
Wow, some poor schmucks have to broadcast that game. Good luck.
San Diego at Seattle. CHARGERS.
Seahawks were great in Week 1 and horrible in Week 2. They’re probably somewhere in the middle.
New York Jets at Miami. DOLPHINS.
Lost in the Jets-mania during the offseason was they were beat twice by Miami last year.
Green Bay at Chicago. PACKERS.
Strange to think this might be a shootout. More sold on the Packers then the Bears.
The always hard to predict Week 17. Mainly for which teams will feel like giving its all this week. At least we know Indy will mail it in.Colts decision last week to throw in the towel during the second half was dumb for several reasons.
– The “keep the players from getting injured” excuse makes no sense. You can get hurt in the first half. The week before they had another game that meant nothing in the standings to the Colts. In that one they played the entire game on the road against a division opponent in Jacksonville. Hmmm, on the road play everyone but piss off the home fans against the Jets.
– Doing it at home. I’m sure they thought they’d get a free ride at home from the fans. Weren’t they surprised? I’m not a fan of Indy but kudos to their fans for booing them last week. You pay season ticket prices and to see them pull that must’ve been beyond annoying. We know they’re not giving the fans a discount although the coach/gm sent them the message “this game doesn’t matter”.
– Being undefeated is something big in football. And Bill Polian’s own words from his radio show in December have come back to bite him. If he was a guy that doesn’t care about records that would be one thing but….
“The most wins in a decade is really something. To me, that’s more impressive than the 22 straight, although, really both of them are equally as impressive.”
“When you think about how infrequently you can get home-field advantage throughout the playoffs – that in itself is an incredible achievement. To do it in the AFC, which is by far the tougher conference, is an equally incredible achievement. To put yourself in the history books with 22 straight victories . . . all records are made to be broken and somebody will come along and break that, but it may be a while before anyone does. It’s really nice to be part of that.”
He cares about the decade wins and the regular season winning streak but not going undefeated? Especially strange since that regular season streak happened with not winning a championship. One and done last season against San Diego. Ya, that’s a memorable streak Bill.
And they don’t realize if they do win this season, it will be remembered now for “What if???” At least other teams have tried to go undefeated, more honour in trying and failing then giving up. Queen’s tried to win the last game of the regular season even though it meant nothing in the standings. But at least they gave an effort.
– One SuperBowl. You can’t be team of the decade with one trophy. An undefeated season which New England couldn’t do would be a big thing. But Indy joins Baltimore, Tampa Bay, New York Giants and St. Louis as teams who won once in the 2000s. Team of the decade argument is Patriots vs Steelers. That’s it. Heck, the Giants even got to 2 SuperBowls this decade. Imagine that.
– As pointed out many times you know who the ’72 Dolphins are. 1971 SuperBowl Champs? Ummm.
Found a quote from Eddie White, co-host of an afternoon drive-time sports-talk show on 1070 The Fan.
“The fans felt cheated on a chance for history. What struck me is that numerous callers said they work two jobs, and the second job was to help them pay for season tickets. What’s also become apparent here in recent years is Indiana and Indianapolis have officially become a football town and football state. The love the Colts. They wanted their team to make history.”
“I think they would have accepted losing 31-30 on a great throw by Mark Sanchez at the gun if it had come with the starters on the field. But the way it happened, they viewed this as the Colts taking the towel and throwing it into the ring. The odd thing now is if they win the Super Bowl, some of the fans will be even more depressed because they felt they could have been perfect too, and that chance was ruined.”
Onto the picks.
Indianapolis at Buffalo. Look who it is. Bills with a win, because of the weather and Indy playing the B Team.
New Orleans at Carolina. Saints have tried to win the last 2 games. Just not playing well. Brees is not playing so pick Carolina.
Jacksonville at Cleveland. Browns have played well lately but I’ll pick the Jags. Jags still have a shot at the playoffs. Technically anyway. They need a win and a tiny bit of help.
1. Jacksonville win + Pittsburgh loss + Baltimore loss + Denver loss + Houston loss OR
2. Jacksonville win + Pittsburgh loss + Baltimore loss + Denver loss + Jets loss OR
3. Jacksonville win + Pittsburgh loss + Baltimore loss + Houston loss + Jets loss OR
4. Jacksonville win + Pittsburgh loss + Denver loss + Houston loss + Jets loss OR
5. Jacksonville win + Jets loss + Denver loss + Houston loss + Baltimore loss
That won’t be hard.
Chicago at Detroit. Bears I guess.
New England at Houston. Patriots even with resting guys. Texans can get in too.
1. Houston win + Jets loss or tie + Baltimore loss or tie OR
2. Houston win + Jets loss or tie + Denver loss or tie OR
3. Houston win + Baltimore loss or tie + Denver loss or tie.
Pittsburgh at Miami. Going with Steelers. Dolphins have one chance to get in.
1. Miami win + Jets loss + Baltimore loss + Houston loss + Jacksonville loss or tie.
Pittsburgh has 3 chances.
1. Pittsburgh win + Houston loss or tie + Jets loss or tie OR
2. Pittsburgh win + Houston loss or tie + Baltimore loss or tie OR
3. Pittsburgh win + Jets loss or tie + Baltimore loss or tie + Denver loss or tie
NY Giants at Minnesota. Vikings falling apart but does NY even care at this point? Minnesota with a win in a horrible game.
San Francisco at St. Louis. Rams [1-14] are the worst team of the last few seasons but keep flying under the radar of most fans with how putrid they are. Lions put up more of a fight in their season when they won nothing. 49ers win here.
Atlanta at Tampa Bay. Bucs, why not?
Now the 4pm games. Philadelphia at Dallas. For the Eagles if they win in Dallas they win the NFC East and a first-round bye. Tie with the Cowboys they win the division. If Vikings lose or tie, Eagles also get the first-round bye. For Dallas if they beat the Eagles, they win the division. If Vikings lose and the Cardinals lose or tie, Dallas get the first-round bye, too. Go with Philly for no real reason. They’re both in the playoffs.
Green Bay at Arizona. Cards can still get a bye? Wow. An Arizona win combined with Minnesota and Philadelphia losing means they get a week off.
Kansas City at Denver. Chiefs with the win, I picked the Raiders to beat Denver recently so have to go with KC. However, even with a loss Denver can get in. Get ready to have a headache after this list of ways the Broncos can get in.
1. Denver win + Jets loss or tie + Baltimore loss or tie OR
2. Denver win + Jets loss or tie + Pittsburgh loss or tie OR
3. Denver win + Jets loss or tie + Houston win OR
4. Denver win + Baltimore loss or tie + Pittsburgh loss or tie OR
5. Denver win + Baltimore loss or tie + Houston win OR
6. Pittsburgh loss + Baltimore loss + Houston loss + Jacksonville loss or tie OR
7. Pittsburgh loss + Baltimore loss + Houston loss + Jets loss OR
8. Pittsburgh loss + Baltimore loss + Jacksonville loss or tie + Jets loss OR
9. Pittsburgh loss + Houston loss + Jacksonville loss or tie + Jets loss OR
10. Jets loss + Baltimore loss + Houston loss + Jacksonville loss or tie
Baltimore at Oakland. Ravens win, they’re in. Lose and they’re not. That’s it….. surprisingly simple. If the Raiders QB was healthy might go for an upset but Gradkowski isn’t. And the game is blacked out in Oakland since they didn’t sell enough tickets.
Washington at San Diego. Chargers in a game that doesn’t matter.
Tennessee at Seattle. Titans, ditto. Unless they’re trying to get Chris Johnson to 2000 yards.
The Sunday Night game [none on Monday by the way] Cincinnati at NY Jets. Jets win they’re in. Last game at Giants Stadium and they’re not selling alcohol. Cranky New Yorkers. Bengals could be playing for a higher seed, but they will know if they can move up with a win by the time the game starts. So they might play the B Team.
Last season Favre and the Jets lost the last game of the season at home when a win would get them in the post-season. NY wouldn’t do that again would they? Oh yes they would, they are the J-E-T-S after all. Bengals win the win.
Both hours from Friday night are now online.
Hour 1 with brand new music from Teresa Ennis’ CD Stars. Then Amelia Curran’s album which is up for some ECMA awards. Including a song called The Mistress, which made for an obvious Tiger Woods reference. End the hour with some songs from Jenn Grant’s recent concert in Kingston.
Hour 2 we move to pop/rock side of things with In Flight Safety and Hey Rosetta!. End the hour with a chat with Neate Sager about the Queen’s Golden Gaels Vanier Cup winning season.